本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛World Technical Strategy: "Which Way to Go?"

- "War does not decide who is right, it decides who is left". Old
Chinese
proverb. A turning point is close at hand.

- If the low, which formed in October, is broken, then all western
markets
will be in both cyclical and secular downtrend.

- A quick resolution of uncertainty could signal a cyclical upturn, but
with out that the bear market will continue.

Markets always react badly to uncertainty. If the situation in Iraq is
not
resolved within a few weeks either by having a war, or it being made
abundantly clear that one is not needed, then stock markets indices
will
break their key support levels. Bear trends will continue and deepen.

The most vital level for any index is always a half of the all time
high.
This is where the S&P index made its low in October, and is the level
that
the FTSE index has just recently tested. This is the watershed level. A
break below it signals a secular downtrend for at least one four year
cycle. When the US indices last had a secular downtrend it lasted 16
years.
All European indices are already well below the vital level, as of
course
is Japan. Secular uptrends seem to be in place in the Pacific Region ex
Japan, and in Commodity driven markets. The potential for them to exist
is
also present in Latin America.

If uncertainty continues, then all markets will probably break down in
a
worst case scenario. Cash will be king. At present, however, the chart
shapes lead us to expect a short war, or a negotiated victory for the
USA.
This would be followed by a modest economic recovery. This could lead
to
rally phases in western markets. We believe that the low to start this
process is now in place.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net