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@Calgary

如果明天加拿大央行降息，美金则大跌，反之，如果加拿大央行利率不变，美金大涨！

duxiaoyue1(杜小月)
如果明天加拿大央行降息，美金则大跌，反之，如果加拿大央行利率不变，美金大涨！

BoC Interest Rate Decision (9:00) 2.75%


The BoC is expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% today, on the back of a series of ongoing gains in external demand and strength in the domestic economy. The key uncertainty remains the tug of war between strong external demand and the appreciating CAD over the outlook for export growth. That uncertainty will take a few more months to play out, suggesting that any rate cut would be more likely in Mar or Apr than today or Jan/20. However, the odds of a rate cut are likely in the 25% range, given the BoC's past sensitivities to CAD movements, the chorus of complaining from exporters, and the more prevalent role for exchange rate developments in the BoC's public statements. For a complete analysis of our thoughts on today's interest rate announcement, please see our report entitled "Bank of Canada to hold steady for now" (Dec/2, 2003).
(#1493080@0)
Last Updated: 2003-12-1
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下家园 / 理财投资税务 / 如果明天加拿大央行降息，美金则大跌，反之，如果加拿大央行利率不变，美金大涨！ -duxiaoyue1(杜小月); 2003-12-1 {999} (#1493080@0)
    如果明天加拿大央行降息，美金则大跌，反之，如果加拿大央行利率不变，美金大涨！

    BoC Interest Rate Decision (9:00) 2.75%


    The BoC is expected to leave the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% today, on the back of a series of ongoing gains in external demand and strength in the domestic economy. The key uncertainty remains the tug of war between strong external demand and the appreciating CAD over the outlook for export growth. That uncertainty will take a few more months to play out, suggesting that any rate cut would be more likely in Mar or Apr than today or Jan/20. However, the odds of a rate cut are likely in the 25% range, given the BoC's past sensitivities to CAD movements, the chorus of complaining from exporters, and the more prevalent role for exchange rate developments in the BoC's public statements. For a complete analysis of our thoughts on today's interest rate announcement, please see our report entitled "Bank of Canada to hold steady for now" (Dec/2, 2003).
    • 。。说反了吧？ -zippo(cHaRcOaL。。); 2003-12-1 (#1493084@0)
      • No! 加拿大央行降息is good for Canada，美金则大跌，反之，如果加拿大央行利率不变，CAD is no good for Canada,美金大涨！ -duxiaoyue1(杜小月); 2003-12-1 (#1493090@0)
        • 。。呵呵。。你开创了个新的理论体系:P -zippo(cHaRcOaL。。); 2003-12-1 (#1493098@0)
        • ？？？ -heian(黑暗㊣效果不好，走！); 2003-12-1 (#1493105@0)
        • 利息升，币值涨。这是一般接受的规律。难道你有新发现？：） -camryv6(CamryV6); 2003-12-1 (#1493145@0)
        • 从经济理论分析的话，短期内有可能利息和汇率的变化不成正比，有个时间性，可是一般的，长期来讲，是成正比的。 -lizpan(忽然之间); 2003-12-1 (#1493161@0)
      • 加拿大还没那么大的影响力，最多时加币跌一跌，在国际市场上美金还不至于出现大的波动，波动的是加币。不过，我觉得加拿大央行块挺不住了 -kent932(家在北方); 2003-12-1 (#1493265@0)
    • “如果明天加拿大央行降息，美金则大跌”？这个逻辑显然搞错了。 -dundas888(登达寺); 2003-12-1 (#1493091@0)
      • 明天加拿大央行降息对加拿大来说是利好消息！ -duxiaoyue1(杜小月); 2003-12-1 (#1493103@0)
        • 对加拿大经济是利好，但不是对加元利好。这个区别可大了。去年美国央行降了这么多次息，也没看出对美元有啥利好。 -dundas888(登达寺); 2003-12-1 (#1493109@0)
          • 说了也是白说。不是说利息不会调嘛。：P -dundas888(登达寺); 2003-12-1 (#1493111@0)
            • 最近加币涨的太猛,明天很有可能减25个基点. 可以少付点贷款利息了:-)) -fox69(fox); 2003-12-1 (#1493123@0)
        • Lower interest rate, higher money supplies, cheaper for our dollars. -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2003-12-1 (#1493110@0)
          • U mean CAD? Just to make sure you are not from the south side ~ -arron(大小通吃); 2003-12-1 (#1493112@0)
            • rolia is toronto based. -jeffrey815(Smartiecat); 2003-12-1 (#1493125@0)
        • 当然是好消息，我希望他降息，这样美元就能涨了。俺手头都是美元，半年来跌去了多少百分点，天可怜见。 另外，俺想请教如何开股票买卖户口。哪位大虾教教俺？ -sthunter(西骥); 2003-12-1 (#1493114@0)
          • 我认为该下手时就下手。不能手软。 -xuyca(Eric); 2003-12-1 (#1493124@0)
            • 问题是俺还没有股票账号呢。没办法，英文烂，很多事情通过电话办不好。 -sthunter(西骥); 2003-12-1 (#1493128@0)
              • make a apointment, then talk face to face, use body language -duxiaoyue1(杜小月); 2003-12-1 (#1493135@0)
          • 就怕降息后，不涨反跌 -duxiaoyue1(杜小月); 2003-12-1 (#1493261@0)
        • 加国央行降息,则美圆与加圆之间的息差减小. 这将支持美元而遏制加圆的升势. -fox69(fox); 2003-12-1 (#1493117@0)
          • good new for me if usd up -ineaton(AN); 2003-12-1 (#1493262@0)

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