本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Source: FT.com
Dollar falls as Fed official talks of “crisis”
By Steve Johnson in London
Published: October 8 2004 11:39 | Last updated: October 8 2004 11:39
The dollar fell in European morning trade on Friday after what appeared to be a concerted attempt by US officials, including President Bush, to talk it down.
Robert McTeer, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, set the ball rolling by warning that; “Over time, there is only one way for the dollar to go - lower”. Just for good measure, Mr McTeer also talked about the theoretical possibility of a crisis precipitating “rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar” if and when the wider world stops funding the US current account deficit.
Fed governor Ben Bernanke waded in by stating that the Fed will pause in hiking interest rates if the US economy slows. It also emerged that President Bush yesterday spoke to his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao about currency issues, including China’s plans to move to a more flexible exchange rate.
While numerous Fed officials have made similar comments before, the market was particularly struck by the tenor of Mr McTeer’s long-term warning.
“The comments from Fed President McTeer are very surprising. His comments were certainly far more direct than previous comments from other Fed officials,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
“These views on the topic of funding the current account deficit only heighten the chances of an interruption to financial flows if investors start to believe that the US authorities feel a substantially weaker dollar is the only way forward.”
As a result the dollar fell 0.2c to $1.2318 against the euro and 0.5c to $1.7875 against sterling, with these movements kept in check by the impending announcement of September’s non-farm payrolls data later on Friday.
The dollar fell more sharply against Asian currencies however, slipping Y0.8 to Y110.33 against the yen and to Won1,147.9 against the South Korean won and S$1.6852 versus the Singapore dollar. With the pressure mounting on China to let the renminbi appreciate, the logic is that other Asian nations, which have intervened in the market to stop their own competitiveness against China being damaged, will be willing to allow their currencies to follow the renminbi higher.
“Malaysia’s PM Abdullah [Ahmad Badawi] has acknowledged that a China move would cause it to reassess its peg, which would presumably trigger similar reactions across Asia,” said Tim Fox, head of market strategy at National Australia Bank.
The yen also strengthened against European currencies, firming Y0.8 to Y135.93 against the euro and Y0.8 to Y197.27 versus sterling, as well as rebounding Y0.5 to Y80.30 against the Australian dollar.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Dollar falls as Fed official talks of “crisis”
By Steve Johnson in London
Published: October 8 2004 11:39 | Last updated: October 8 2004 11:39
The dollar fell in European morning trade on Friday after what appeared to be a concerted attempt by US officials, including President Bush, to talk it down.
Robert McTeer, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, set the ball rolling by warning that; “Over time, there is only one way for the dollar to go - lower”. Just for good measure, Mr McTeer also talked about the theoretical possibility of a crisis precipitating “rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar” if and when the wider world stops funding the US current account deficit.
Fed governor Ben Bernanke waded in by stating that the Fed will pause in hiking interest rates if the US economy slows. It also emerged that President Bush yesterday spoke to his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao about currency issues, including China’s plans to move to a more flexible exchange rate.
While numerous Fed officials have made similar comments before, the market was particularly struck by the tenor of Mr McTeer’s long-term warning.
“The comments from Fed President McTeer are very surprising. His comments were certainly far more direct than previous comments from other Fed officials,” said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
“These views on the topic of funding the current account deficit only heighten the chances of an interruption to financial flows if investors start to believe that the US authorities feel a substantially weaker dollar is the only way forward.”
As a result the dollar fell 0.2c to $1.2318 against the euro and 0.5c to $1.7875 against sterling, with these movements kept in check by the impending announcement of September’s non-farm payrolls data later on Friday.
The dollar fell more sharply against Asian currencies however, slipping Y0.8 to Y110.33 against the yen and to Won1,147.9 against the South Korean won and S$1.6852 versus the Singapore dollar. With the pressure mounting on China to let the renminbi appreciate, the logic is that other Asian nations, which have intervened in the market to stop their own competitiveness against China being damaged, will be willing to allow their currencies to follow the renminbi higher.
“Malaysia’s PM Abdullah [Ahmad Badawi] has acknowledged that a China move would cause it to reassess its peg, which would presumably trigger similar reactions across Asia,” said Tim Fox, head of market strategy at National Australia Bank.
The yen also strengthened against European currencies, firming Y0.8 to Y135.93 against the euro and Y0.8 to Y197.27 versus sterling, as well as rebounding Y0.5 to Y80.30 against the Australian dollar.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net