记得去年这个时候准备买房,就有很多人说房价要跌, 如今已经享受了一年,也不管它是涨是跌, 反正自己住, 又不是投资,等房价跌到算是捡了大便宜的时候, 是不是也快退休了, 其实比起咱中国的房价,多伦多房价算什么, 说真的, 现在俺 回去中国都买不起房子.

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛WHEN HISTORY DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE
August 28, 2005
My, my, my. It is always interesting to me how some people (maybe most people, come to think of it) deny the lessons history has to teach us. They think current trends will be in place forever, and take action accordingly.

How else to explain why hundreds of millions of people poured tens of billions of dollars in the stock of companies that didn't make any money? Because everybody else was; because the media was consumed with the dot-com craze; and because they denied what history had to teach.

How else to explain why investors bid the price of a single ounce of yellow metal beyond $1,000? Because it was the thing to do; because the media was consumed with gold; and because everybody thought it would go up forever.

Now, how do you explain why real estate values have soared by more than 70% in the last five years across most of the United States? Why a house in a so-so Toronto neighbourhood has doubled in value in the last seven years? Why the average home price has hit the highest point in history, or why mortgage debt has exploded?

Because, of course, real estate values will go up forever. Because the media is consumed with housing, and because historical cycles have absolutely nothing to do with us anymore. Just ask reader Amy Strutt, who fired me off an indignant e-mail a day or two ago, after reading an article I wrote some months back, pulling comparisons between real estate today and the dot-com craze of 1999.

"Why don't writers and journalists like yourself take an approach of teaching people versus fear-mongering tactics in hopes of selling one more book or article," she fumes. "Articles like this one do nothing but put fear into the hearts of hard-working people."

"Do you honestly believe real estate is riskier than stocks or bonds? Hardly. After September 11, what happened to my real estate portfolio? It went up!"

Hey, Amy, I bet it did. Actually, the events of Nine Eleven were one of the most significant catalysts for the real estate reality that exists today. Dismayed by the hit financial markets took, investors ?already disappointed at the popping of the technology bubble ?took billions out of paper securities and drove that money into bricks and mortar. At the same time, to stave off recession, the American central bank collapsed interest rates, which would lead to the artificially-low mortgages that we have now.

As a result, the real estate craze was on, and has resulted in the housing bubble that characterizes so many cities across North America. Rising real estate values have been masked by generationally-cheap debt, making housing appear far more affordable than it would be under normal circumstances. Meanwhile, consumers have been done no favours by "experts" with a unique relationship with the real estate market ?like big-name realtors and economists employed by the major lenders (like the big banks). People have been told repeatedly that real estate is still affordable; that prices will continue to increase (albeit more slowly); and that there is no real estate cycle anymore.

This may well be true. Maybe house prices will go up every year for the rest of your life. And if you believe that, then there is no reason to sell at the top of the cycle (because there isn't one), or to pay down mortgage debt (because rising prices make it more insignificant each year).

But it you are like me, you ask questions. Who, exactly, is going to come along and buy your house in the suburbs of Toronto or Calgary for more than the million dollars you paid? How can we be growing millionaires this fast when the average family income is less than $60,000, and has not grown much for a decade? What happens when mortgage rates increase, as they are set to do after the coming long weekend? When we are building 200,000 new houses a year in Canada, when does the supply exceed the demand? And, most importantly, when the average house prices exceeds the ability of the average family to buy it, what happens then?

Am I saying real estate is about to collapse? No. Hardly. It's still a good investment asset, and you have to live somewhere. A principal residence makes great sense. But a condo, or second house, bought to rent out does not. A mortgage you can only afford to carry at today's rates is a time bomb. A zillion dollar cottage on the lake could sink you.

But that's just me talking. And history.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

So if you can afford the new house and put 25% downpayment, u can buy it.
If not, better save money for %25 downpay.

一个是位置好,一楼空间很小,降了1万,还没卖掉呢.另一个是地理位置不好,屋里也搞的脏脏的,降了1万后来卖掉了.还有两个是后院太小或是VIEW不好,降了5000,好不容易才卖掉.

这就是七月份condo在整体交易量中比例大幅上升，从而拉低了整体房价的原因。45w的房子掉到40w, 是便宜，但大部分人还是买不起，还是只能买condo

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛美国房产泡沫将破灭 中国房地产怎么办
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多伦多信息港 http://www.torontoservice.com 2005-9-1 22:34:00 东方早报

【多伦多信息港】何时是世界经济的下一个大萧条？中国是否为此做好了准备？这已经是不可回避的问题

　　上周末，美国联邦储备银行总裁格林斯潘警告：美国的房地产泡沫可能破灭，美国的财政赤字降低了政府应付经济危机的弹性。一句话，美国的经济前景充满忧患。

　　众所周知，市场经济的发展有其周期性，高速成长后就会有衰退、萧条。而且常常是爬得越高、摔得越狠，经济热的太厉害，冷起来就会有彻骨之寒。19世纪末美国急剧工业化，一跃成为世界第一大经济，铁路网覆盖全国。世纪之交时的铁路泡沫崩解，仍然煞不住这辆经济快车，最后有了1920年代末1930年代初的全球经济大萧条，一直到二战后才缓过来。1990年代美国的高速经济发展，常常被人们比为19世纪末的镀金时代，IT泡沫的破灭，好像就是当年铁路泡沫的破灭。但是，是否跟着还会有一个大萧条呢？

　　应该说，本世纪初的IT泡沫的破灭，阵痛非常之小。美国经济增长略有停顿后，马上就复苏，甚至房地产价格一直不断上涨，失业率依然非常之低。经济学家们纷纷说，这是历史上阵痛最小的衰退。甚至许多人认为这根本不构成严格意义上的衰退。远不能和当年铁路泡沫的破灭相提并论。

　　也正因为如此，美国乃至世界经济的前景就更令人担忧。经济衰退或萧条，在某种意义上说就是一种良性的调整。经济下跌不够，这种调整就没有完成。具体而言，这次IT泡沫的破灭没有引起什么阵痛，是因为美国用一个新的、更大的泡沫，代替了IT泡沫。近五年，美国的房地产价值上涨了50%左右。大部分美国人拥有自己的房产。自己的房子值钱了，财富就多了。不仅花钱时手松，而且借钱时因为有自己升了值的房产作抵押，也很容易借得大笔的钱来。

　　肯尼迪曾经说过，高涨的潮水抬起了所有的船。房地产价值一升，大家只要坐在家里就可以发家致富。这下子可刺激了投机者，急坏了没有上船的人。投机者纷纷进入房地产市场，借贷买房，等着升值赚钱，许多房子还在图纸阶段就被反复炒卖，几度易手。第一次买房子的人，倾家荡产也要买房子，生怕越晚买就越买不起。为了适应这些人的需要，新的风险贷款纷纷出笼。比如，传统的购房方式是先预付20%的定金，其他部分靠30年固定利率的贷款偿还。现在则有一分定金不付、前五年只付利息不付本金的贷款。这种贷款可以使许多人买自己根本不可能买得起的房子，但五年后本金利息加在一起集中支付，负担急剧加大。敢下这个赌的人算的是：五年后要么自己的收入翻翻，要么房子本身急剧升值，可以在不得不连本带利偿还贷款之前脱手，赚他一大笔。

　　房子就是这么被炒得贵得离谱。但是，一般老百姓挣多少呢？美国家庭平均收入，不过五万美元上下。现在大家都觉得自己有钱，其实不过是炒出来、写在纸上的财富。你把纸上的数字改一下，大家一夜之间就成了穷光蛋。

　　这也是现在大家想想就怕的事情。房子贵得大家买不起，投机者手里的房子就出不去。供需关系一变，房价就会停止上涨甚至下跌。只要房价停止上涨，那些用风险贷款买房的人，五年过后连本带利的高额债务就会压上来，不大出血就抛不出去，但高价买的房子低价出手，借的债又如何还？所以，许多人会破产，房子会被银行没收抵债，抛到市场上低价出售，进一步把房价拉下来。大家写在纸上的钱，一下子会大缩水。

　　美国最近经济恢复，失业率不断降低，主要靠的就是房屋建造业。一旦房地产这个泡沫破灭了，大家一下子觉得穷了许多，更有些人会倾家荡产。全社会开始节衣缩食，购买力大降。同时，建房业萧条，大量失业人口又会出来。这样一来，经济就会跌入深谷。所以许多专家说，股市泡沫破灭，IT泡沫破灭都掀不起大浪。怕就怕房地产泡沫破灭。那可真像是大树倒了砸到自己的房子上。躲的地方都没有。

　　美国人如果这样倒霉，和中国有什么关系？从格林斯潘的话中，你就可以找到答案：房地产一往下走，美国人的钱包就关上了。大家开始储蓄，而不是消费。美国的进口会大幅度下降。

　　如今不管是世界经济还是中国经济，都过度依靠美国人的超前消费。这种超前消费，目前已经到了极限。如果美国的市场坍塌，再加上石油危机，几头夹击，中国的经济就会受到打击。

　　目前中国是全球化的主力领跑者之一，不可能不受世界经济的影响。改革20多年来，中国经济持续增长，大的衰退和萧条还从来没有过。但是，只要你搞市场经济，只要你融入世界体系，这种萧条、衰退的周期是绕不开的。因此，中国政府和社会，应该趁着现在日子好过的时候，提高自己的“抗打击力”，免得到时候措手不及。其中一个最重要的手段，就是尽可能让更多的人从经济发展中受益，让老百姓(比如民工)收入高一些，如我曾经说的，中国人自己要“贵”一些，这样才有足够的“内需”。如果坐在美国这辆车上、靠人家的市场，是没法心里踏实的。特别是现在开车的已经有些喝多了。更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

http://www.rolia.net/forum/forum_showPost.php?tno=304122&pno=2482514&

我的一个朋友在shane homes做预算师，他说现在builder的建新房的利润在20-25%左右，现在原油涨价造成运输费用升高，原材料要涨价（木材已经涨了），人工不会降（就现在这样还罢工呢，他们有工会），成本越来越高，如果房价跌到builder的利润低于10%我想他们就会少建或停建，这时市场上的房源减少，当达到供少于求时，价格就会回涨，除非没有人买房，或有很多人卖房，但卖房的人住哪里了呢？去住公寓，因为能源涨价公寓也要涨。。。。。这笔帐真是越算越糊涂，还是自己算吧，欢迎拍砖！